Bernd Becker 
Game Theory is a branch of applied mathematics that studies strategic interaction between rational decision-makers. It looks at the strategies and moves for both players in order to determine what outcome will result from their interactions.
The Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Rangers are among the clubs who have risen in the rankings this week after another week of the 2021-22 NHL season has passed.
While each club has had its fair share of shocks during the season, we set out to determine the most significant for each of the 32 teams.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey pundits, analysts, reporters, and editors rank teams against one another based on game results, injuries, and the upcoming schedule, and the results are collated to generate the list seen above.
Note: The previous rating for each team pertains to the edition from last week, which was published on December 1. The percentages of points scored are through Tuesday’s games.
Previously ranked: 2 points, 0.760 percentile next games: against. OTT (Dec. 10), vs. ARI (Dec. 12). (Dec. 14)
So far, Florida has handled adversity well. Joel Quenneville, the team’s head coach, has resigned? Andrew Brunette is now on the scene. If Aleksander Barkov, Gustav Forsling, or Sergei Bobrovsky (who has surprised many with a strong comeback season) are injured, what happens to the rest of the team? It’s time for the next guy up. The Panthers have yet to lose more than two consecutive games in regulation this season, showcasing their ability to weather the storm.
Previously ranked: 4 points, 0.704 percentile next games: Dec. 9 vs. TB, Dec. 11 vs. CHI, Dec. 12 vs. EDM (Dec. 14)
For Toronto, Jack Campbell has been a revelation in net. Even his breakthrough season last season hasn’t dimmed the shock of his current outburst, which has him sitting atop the NHL goalkeeper field with a 13-4-2 record, a.942 save percentage, and a 1.78 goals-against average through 20 games.
Previously ranked at 6 points, with a percentage of 0.673. upcoming games: Dec. 9 vs. CAR, Dec. 11 vs. BOS, Dec. 13 vs. CHI, Dec. 14 vs. NSH (Dec. 14)
Calgary is the season’s most unexpected team. Period. And Andrew Mangiapane has to be the most surprise talent in the NHL. Darryl Sutter’s team has gone from “bubble playoff candidate” to “could they go all the way?” with terrific defense, excellent goaltending, and red-hot scoring performances. Mangiapane has been scoring despite everything, with 17 goals in 25 appearances.
Previous position: 3 points, 0.731 percentile Upcoming games include: vs. PIT (Dec. 10) and At BUF (Dec. 11). (Dec. 11)
Nicklas Backstrom is one of the top centers in the NHL, but he hasn’t played a minute this season for the Capitals due to injuries. Surprisingly, though! Washington is keeping up with the rest of the world. The Capitals are humming along thanks to Alex Ovechkin’s prolific scoring and Evgeny Kuznetsov’s surprise revival.
1 pts 0.729 pts 0.729 pts 0.729 pts 0.729 CGY (Dec. 9), EDM (Dec. 11), VAN (Dec. 12), and MIN (Dec. 13) are on the schedule (Dec. 14)
The Hurricanes got off to an unexpectedly strong start. They’d only lost two games all season until succumbing to San Jose in overtime late last month; that’s how terrific they were. The subsequent downward spiral — a 1-4-1 record with defeats to Seattle and Ottawa (at home!) — was the most unexpected hiccup in Carolina’s season.
Previously ranked: 10 points, 0.771 percentile against. COL (Dec. 8), At BUF (Dec. 10), vs. NSH (Dec. 12), @ COL (Dec. 13). (Dec. 14)
The Rangers’ young attacking studs have failed to score this season, which is surprising (the “Kid Line” of Alexis Lafreniere, Filip Chytil and Julien Gauthier has eight goals between them, for example). Igor Shesterkin, on the other hand, is the big surprise. Whatever expectations there were for Shesterkin as Henrik Lundqvist’s replacement, he has exceeded them as New York’s top player.
Previously ranked at #7, with a percentage of 0.740. next games: against. CAR (Dec. 9), At SJ (Dec. 11), @ LA (Dec. 11), @ VGK (Dec. 12). (Dec. 14)
Surprisingly, the Wild are among the top five scorers in the NHL. What’s even more impressive is the well-balanced approach that has brought them there. Minnesota had just two players with more than ten goals (Ryan Hartman and Marcus Foligno) in 24 games, but 14 players had three or more goals, and 12 had double-digit point totals.
Previously ranked at #8 with a percentage of 0.720. Schedule: against. LA (Dec. 9), At TOR (Dec. 11), @ OTT (Dec. 12). (Dec. 14)
Tampa’s refusal to be shaken is astonishing. Since Game 3, Nikita Kucherov has been out of the lineup. Victor Hedman is just now beginning to recover from a shaky start. Brayden Point is no longer with us. Mathieu Joseph was late for a game. However, Gabriel Fortier, a 21-year-old rookie, has come in as a reinforcement, Anthony Cirelli is seizing the moment, and Andrei Vasilevskiy is, well, Andrei Vasilevskiy. They continue on their way.
Previous position: 5 points, 0.667 percentile Schedule: against. BOS (Dec. 9), vs. CAR (Dec. 11), vs. TOR (Dec. 12). (Dec. 14)
It’s strange to watch a team with so much skill yet battle with inconsistency — start slowly, scramble into the second, then try a frantic third-period comeback. It didn’t work last spring in the playoffs, and it’s not working this season either. This season, Edmonton is 0-6-0 when trailing after the first period and 7-7-0 after allowing the opening goal.
Previously ranked at 9 points, with a percentage of 0.636. upcoming schedule: against. DET (Dec. 10), vs. FLA (Dec. 12), vs. NYR (Dec. 8), vs. DET (Dec. 10), vs. DET (Dec. 10), vs. DET (Dec. 10), vs. FLA (Dec. 12), vs. NY (Dec. 14)
Is Nazem Kadri among the top five scorers after the first quarter? That was unexpected. And when Nathan MacKinnon was out with an injury, the Avalanche went 7-1-0? Another startling revelation. This season, the Avs’ depth has bloomed more than predicted, and they now seem menacing as a result.
12 pts. 0.611 pts. 0.611 pts. 0.611 pts next games: Dec. 9 vs. CBJ, Dec. 11 vs. PIT, Dec. 12 vs. STL (Dec. 12)
Anaheim is rebuilding, and the results have been surprisingly impressive. Troy Terry has a high point-per-game average. Trevor Zegras is making a strong case for the Calder Trophy. And Ryan Getzlaf was on his way to having his greatest season in years until sustaining an injury last week. Oh, and John Gibson has been a world-class goalkeeper. It’s uncommon that a reconstruction looks that excellent!
Previous position: 19 points, with a percentage of 0.636. Schedule: vs. STL (Dec. 8), At VGK (Dec. 9), @ LA (Dec. 9), @ SJ (Dec. 11). (Dec. 14)
Jake Oettinger has been the Stars’ greatest surprise this season. Dallas needed a backup goalie for veteran Braden Holtby, and it got it in Oettinger, somewhat surprisingly. After being recalled, the 22-year-old went 5-0-0 with a 1.41 goals-against average and.951 save percentage. And, surprise, surprise, Dallas is surging up the rankings.
Previously ranked at 17 points, with a percentage of 0.580. Schedule: @ WSH (Dec. 10), against. ANA (Dec. 11), vs. MTL (Dec. 12). (Dec. 14)
Let’s discuss about Jake Guentzel’s unexpected success (because really, we should be). Guentzel has been picking up the burden for a Penguins club that is scoring less than three goals per game amid all of the COVID drama in Pittsburgh; the winger has points in 20 of his first 24 games, scored a hat trick in one period against Vancouver last week, and is on a 12-game point streak.
Previously ranked at 16 points, with a percentage of 0.595. upcoming schedule: vs. VGK (Dec. 8), At VAN (Dec. 9), @ EDM (Dec. 9), @ CGY (Dec. 11). (Dec. 14)
After 21 games, the Bruins are still without a playoff berth. It’s a bit unexpected. What could be more shocking? That anybody is astonished that Brad Marchand, 33, is still the Bruins’ leading scorer and remains as controversial as ever.
Previously ranked at 13 points, with a percentage of 0.583. next games: Dec. 8 vs. DAL, Dec. 10 vs. PHI, Dec. 12 vs. MIN, Dec. 13 At BOS (Dec. 14)
Vegas was expected to be a strong Western Conference contender, thus the team’s slow start (thanks in part to injuries and sickness) was a surprise in the rankings. Chandler Stephenson, a more pleasant surprise, has helped the Golden Knights improve in the standings. In 24 games, the forward led Vegas with nine goals and 22 points, providing consistency when the Golden Knights lacked it.
Previous position: 11; percentage: 0.560; previous ranking: 11; previous ranking: 11; previous ranking: 11; previous ranking: next games: vs. BUF (Dec. 9), against. SEA (Dec. 10), vs. VAN (Dec. 11). (Dec. 14)
The Jets have had a surprising amount of difficulty scoring goals this season. Prior to last weekend’s 14-7 victory over New Jersey and Toronto, Winnipeg had been 30th in goals (1.92 per game) since Nov. 6, and had been shut out three times during that span. The tide seems to be turning, which isn’t surprising considering what Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, and their colleagues are capable of.
Previously ranked at 14 points, with a percentage of 0.600. next games: Dec. 9 vs. DET, Dec. 11 vs. MTL, Dec. 12 vs. ANA, Dec. 13 At DAL (Dec. 14)
Given the ups and downs of the season, it’s surprising that St. Louis is still a Central Division contender. Five consecutive victories to start, then seven defeats in ten games (including a home loss to Arizona! ), players entering and exiting COVID processes… it’s a lot. Surprisingly, the Blues were still in the postseason hunt after 24 games, with a record of 12-8-4. That’s impressive.
Previously ranked at 21 points with a percentage of 0.580. Schedule: against. CGY (Dec. 9), vs. NYI (Dec. 10), vs. NJ (Dec. 10), vs. NYR (Dec. 12). (Dec. 14)
Is there a greater welcome surprise for Nashville than Matt Duchene’s return? Most likely not. The Predators have been waiting for Duchene to have the kind of season he’s had so far, with 13 goals and 24 points in his first 24 games. In a close Central Division contest, this has helped Nashville get off to a better start than anticipated.
Previous position: 24 points, 0.558 percentile next games: against. NYI (Dec. 9), At STL (Dec. 10), @ COL (Dec. 11). (Dec. 14)
Detroit was not anticipated to be a playoff contender this season. However, youngsters Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider, and Alex Nedeljkovic’s impressive performance helped catapult Detroit into a wild-card berth after 25 games. That’s incredible.
Previously ranked at 22 points, with a percentage of 0.500. next games: Dec. 9 vs. DAL, Dec. 11 vs. MIN, Dec. 12 At TB (Dec. 14)
The most unexpected development from the Kings’ camp has to be the omission of youngster Brandt Clarke off Canada’s World Junior Championship squad. He’s expected to be a big star in the future. Another surprise? Drew Doughty is approximately a month ahead of schedule in his comeback from injury. That is remarkable regardless of who you are.
Previously ranked: 15 points, 0.542 percentile Upcoming games include: against. ANA (Dec. 9), At SEA (Dec. 11), and @ VAN (Dec. 12). (Dec. 14)
The goaltending for the Blue Jackets has been shockingly excellent. Elvis Merzlikins started the season 10-4-0, ranking 12th among NHL starts with a.920 save percentage. In place of the injured Joonas Korpisalo, Daniil Tarasov had a.926 save percentage (but still needs his first win). Overall, it’s excellent goaltending for a Columbus squad that ranks fifth in shots against this season.
Previously ranked at 18 points, with a percentage of 0.500. vs. PHI (Dec. 8), against. NSH (Dec. 10), At NYI (Dec. 11), @ PHI (Dec. 12). (Dec. 14)
When you consider who’s available to play on it, the Devils’ power play is rather inefficient. Dougie Hamilton, Dawson Mercer, Andreas Johnsson, Jesper Bratt, and Nico Hischier were not among those who were missing for weeks. Despite this, New Jersey ranked 31st on the power play (13.1 percent) after 23 games, surrendering three short-handed goals. Ouch.
Previously ranked: 20 points, 0.558 percentile Schedule: against. MIN (Dec. 9), vs. DAL (Dec. 11), vs. SEA (Dec. 12). (Dec. 14)
San Jose shocked everyone with a strong start in the Pacific Division, and they are still in playoff contention this week. Despite missing their top scorer from previous season (Evander Kane) and coping with a COVID-19 epidemic early in the season, they have been successful. It’s thanks, in part, to another unexpected development: James Reimer’s comeback. Reimer was 8-4-1 with a.934 save percentage and 2.11 goals-against average over his first 14 games.
Previously ranked at: 26 points, with a percentage of 0.400. next games: against. CGY (Dec. 9), At MTL (Dec. 11), @ TOR (Dec. 12). (Dec. 13)
The greatest surprise for Chicago is Derek King’s ability to bring the squad back on track after a terrible 1-10-2 start. The Blackhawks were 8-4-0 in their first 13 games, and they still have a chance to salvage their season. But it’s also worth mentioning Jonathan Toews’ surprise at not scoring in his first 24 games.
Previously ranked at 23 points, with a percentage of 0.435. next games: against. NJ (Dec. 8), vs. VGK (Dec. 10), vs. ARI (Dec. 11). (Dec. 14)
In the face of so much promise, the Flyers have been shockingly ordinary. Claude Giroux, Cam Atkinson, and Travis Konecny all got plenty of ice time, but Philadelphia didn’t have a single player with more than 10 goals after 23 games, and it’s one of the NHL’s lowest-scoring teams. It’s also surprising because they have one of the league’s least successful power plays (14.3 percent).
Previously ranked at 29 points with a percentage of 0.405. Upcoming games include: vs. NSH (Dec. 9), vs. NJ (Dec. 11), and At DET (Dec. 12). (Dec. 14)
What about the Islanders’ season-long slump isn’t surprising? The 13-game road trip to start the season, as well as a COVID-19 outbreak and delay, took its toll. However, New York is one of the lowest-scoring teams in the NHL, its power play has been in the bottom five, and its general defensive game has been erratic. Not what you’d expect from a squad that has come close to making the Cup Finals the previous two years.
Previous position: 27 points, with a percentage of 0.385. vs. BOS (Dec. 8), vs. WPG (Dec. 10), vs. CAR (Dec. 12), vs. CBJ (Dec. 13). (Dec. 14)
The greatest surprise? The Canucks’ studs Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser’s lack of output, which has definitely contributed to the team’s perplexingly dismal start. What’s the second greatest surprise? That it took Vancouver until this week to make changes, replacing Travis Green with Bruce Boudreau and sacking general manager Jim Benning.
Previously ranked at 28 points with a percentage of 0.400. Upcoming games are WPG (Dec. 9), CBJ (Dec. 11), and SJ (Dec. 12). (Dec. 14)
Anything from a squad that didn’t exist before this season is difficult to be astonished by. But few could have imagined Philipp Grubauer’s transformation from Vezina Trophy finalist to struggling starter (7-10-2,.886 save percentage). Even on the roster of an expansion team.
30 pts. 0.313 pts. 0.313 pts. 0.313 pts Upcoming games include: against. TB (Dec. 11), At FLA (Dec. 12). (Dec. 14)
Isn’t it shocking that Senators general manager Pierre Dorion said before the season began that “the reconstruction is complete” in Ottawa? Very. The Senators were 32nd in goals against and 31st in shots against after 23 games, Matt Murray was banished to the minors, and there aren’t enough guys stepping up to stem the hemorrhage quickly enough.
Previous position: 31 0.278 points out of a possible 100 Upcoming games include: against. CHI (Dec. 9), At STL (Dec. 11), and @ PIT (Dec. 12). (Dec. 14)
The Canadiens are the season’s worst surprise. In less than six months, the team went from being a Stanley Cup finalist to having its front office dismantled. It’s been an unexpected turn of events.
Previous position: 25 points; percentage: 0.380; previous ranking: 25 points; previous ranking: 25 points; previous ranking: 25 Upcoming games include: against. NYR (Dec. 10), vs. WSH (Dec. 11), and At WPG (Dec. 12). (Dec. 14)
Buffalo’s most stunning accomplishment so far has been a 5-2-0 start. Perhaps the ensuing free fall wouldn’t have been as spectacular if Craig Anderson hadn’t been harmed. However, without Anderson, the Sabres’ goaltending has been startlingly terrible, particularly in Aaron Dell’s first seven outings (4.52 goals-against average,.872 save percentage) and Malcolm Subban’s first start (.760 save percentage).
Previously ranked at 32 points, with a percentage of 0.240. next games: against. FLA (Dec. 10) and vs. PHI (Dec. 11). (Dec. 11)
Arizona has five victories on the season, three of which were against playoff clubs. That’s unexpected.
